Refinement

Statistik/Ökonometrie

Evaluating probability forecasts in terms of refinement and strictly proper scoring rules

This note gives an easily verified necessary and sufficient condition for one probability forecaster to empirically outperform another one in terms...

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Statistik/Ökonometrie

On the ordering of probability forecasts

The paper explores the relationship between various orderings among probability forecasts that have been suggested in the literature. It is shown...

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